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Measuring the impact of COVID-19 with a view to reactivation

Publication cover
Corporate author:
  • NU. CEPAL
21 p. Editorial: ECLAC April 2020

Description

The aim of this second Special Report is to quantify the economic impact of the pandemic in the short and medium term. With regard the short term —during the course of 2020— estimates shed light on the dynamics of production, employment, poverty and income distribution, based on data available at 17 April 2020, for all the subregions of Latin America and the Caribbean and many of their economies. The report also provides details of the main macroeconomic policy measures to tackle the effects of the pandemic that have been announced to date.

Quantifying the decline in economic activity enables authorities to determine the magnitude of the effort required for a return to normal. However, this return to normal will not and should not mean going back to the way things were before the pandemic. The medium-term vision that concludes this report describes the structural changes in the organization of production that are already under way and are expected to gather pace. There will also be impacts —in some cases irreversible— on the labour structure, employment and well-being.

Quantitative estimates for the short term, combined with forecasts of the main qualitative changes in the medium term, will shape what will becomea new normal.

Table of contents

A. Before the pandemic, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean was at its weakest in decades and policy space was limited .-- B. The pandemic will lead to the most severe contraction in economic activity in the region’s history .-- C. Policy responses to tackle the economic and social effects of the pandemic .-- D. Growth projections for 2020 for the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean .-- E. Macroeconomic policy challenges for continuing to mitigate the effects of the crisis .-- F. Structural effects of the pandemic: the post-COVID 19 world.